How predictions work
The plain rules behind lapse risk, late payment risk, quote acceptance and the health score.
Customer 360 uses clear rules, not a black box. Every number comes with its reasons, and these rules are the whole story.
What counts as an order
An order is an issued invoice (sent, paid or overdue). A customer's rhythm is the usual gap between their orders; orders less than 14 days apart count as one.
Lapse risk
Compares the days since their last order with their usual gap (a year when there isn't enough history). On rhythm, the risk is low; well past it, high. It goes up for a single order more than a year ago, recently declined quotes, or a low review or rating, and down for a good one. Work in progress (an approved quote not yet invoiced, a recent quote or request) keeps it low. A customer with no orders has no lapse risk yet.
Late payment risk
Based on how many of their paid invoices were paid more than 2 days late, plus any invoice overdue now.
Quote acceptance
Their own approval rate, blended with your business's, then lowered the longer the quote has been open (and if it's expired or much bigger than their usual order).
Levels
High is 60% or more, Medium 35% or more, otherwise Low. Confidence grows with the amount of history.
Health score
Starts at 70. Points are added or taken away for ordering on rhythm or falling behind, work in progress, paying on time or late, an overdue balance, being a promoter or detractor, price sensitivity, responsiveness and high value. 70 or more is Good, 45 to 69 Watch, below 45 At risk.
High value
Lifetime value in your top 20% of paying customers (at least $500). With fewer than 10 paying customers, from $2,500.